Last week, much of Beijing was forced to slow down and in the case of its airports, actually shut down owing to high levels of smog. Here in Durban, South Africa, the Cop 17 talks rolled out to try and reach a binding agreement about climate change and a globally shared responsibility towards tackling the problem. The irony was not lost on me as I read reports of each of the big players: US, China and India, stalling the talks for their own economic self interest and reasons. Like many people I initially thought to myself that the smog will truly have to reach rock bottom before a nation like China takes the hint to progress environmental sustainability in spite of its economic progress. On further study, however, I believe that China is trying to do just that.
Revisiting the Chinese 5 Year plan, I noticed that one of the goals is to increase the forest coverage rate to 21.66% and the forest stock to 600million cubic meters. To put this in context, China wants to forest an area which is greater than the size of the United Kingdom. Closer to home here at Cop17, the Chinese have also indicated a willingness to enter a legally binding agreement after 2020 if certain conditions are met and agreed upon by other parties. This agreement includes an undertaking from developed countries, in essence the West, to enter a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. Challenging, considering that the USA hasn’t even agreed to meet the first commitment!
The Kyoto priciples required the developed world meet certain commitments in terms of carbon emission reductions and cost mitigation. The real hinge point seems to be that the developing world eg: BRICS and others believe that the West (developed nations) should bear the brunt of the cost, as the level of carbon emissions we have got to is largely as a result of their historical behaviour. The West believes that as the BRICS are now contributing as many carbon emissions ( China now highest) they should similarly bear brunt of commitments / cost. This is also the ‘brinkmanship’ that has characterized the debate in Durban!
China, it appears, is already working toward a more environmental approach in its national strategy and its global commitments. Unfortunately the cynic in me is also a realist which believes that environmental agreements only work until they start to challenge economic development. For many of the already developed countries, a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol is only something they will do if the US and others agree on a legally biding deal in the future. This commitment comes with a cost in the form of cash promises by the rich nations. With each country waiting to move forward on the condition of other countries commitments, the whole situation resembles a dog chasing its tail.
Although this is yet another historical period, one in which the environment is the primary victim, the progress will unfold slowly over time. From the perspective of South Africa’s progress towards a more sustainable environmental and economic future I believe we are still a very long way off from even attempting the type of development mentioned in the Chinese 5 Year Plan above. Our future success relies on developing capability and, to put it bluntly, if the government gets out of the way and gives the private sector more opportunity to do this, we can get there.
